Right now Karl is neither the slow and steady swell spitter that was Gaston, or the near coastal brawler of Hermine. Instead we have slow, steady and somewhat disorganised with just a hint of something more interesting to come.
It's easy to miss Karl on the MSW swell charts, our model really isn't that interested. The forecast sees a little mid period swell in a fun sized range for Florida with smaller size the further you head north. The reason? A disorganised setup right now with local atmospheric conditions not playing ball.
However the NHC guidance is still for intensification from Thursday as the storm moves into warmer, less troubled waters. The forecast is for potential hurricane strength at this stage, somewhere south of Bermuda. If this is the case then your current MSW forecast will be low-balling you for both size and power, particularly further north.
While we're throwing hints of better things the European model even has a recurve with some swell from the west for Europe.
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